Management Craft

Chengwei Liu

Researcher

Strategy and behavioural-science researcher, at Warwick Business School when he co-wrote the 2012 PNAS paper with Jerker Denrell showing that extreme performance can signal luck rather than ability.

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Top Performers Are Not the Most Impressive When Extreme Performance Indicates UnreliabilityPaper · 2012Denrell and Liu's 2012 PNAS paper showing that where luck moves outcomes a lot, the very best result in a field is weak evidence of the best ability, because an extreme number says more about how noisy the setting is than about the person who posted it. Their conclusion is that the top performers should not automatically be the ones you imitate.