The difference between a great calibration call and a poor one depends on three things: who you talk to, what you ask them, and what you do with their answers.
Getting to the right people
Selection
But don’t only call the most famous person you know. In any field where luck plays a real part in who succeeds — and startups require plenty of luck — the celebrated winners may not be the most reliable sources of signal on what works. [2] Two or three currently practicing experts are likely to beat one legend. [3]
Use peer nomination for routing, but it’s a proxy for expertise. Most functions (role + seniority) you hire for in startups don’t have transparent scoreboards. There is no international database ranking VPs of Marketing. Instead you rely on peer nomination, a fancy label for asking people who they think is good. To increase your chances of talking to a real expert, look for people who:
- Are doing the job right now, not a decade ago.
- Are at a scale and stage relevant to yours.
- Can point to tangible outcomes.
Ask routing questions. You won’t always know five top performers in the role you’re hiring for, but someone you already know might. Ask, “Who do you know who is best in class at this?” Then ask, “Who do you know who would know a lot of people who are best in class at this?” This is called snowball sampling. [4] My favorite, a question particularly good for experts: “who do you go to when you’re stuck?” And ask routing questions to weak ties (acquaintances, neighbors, people you used to work with). Weak ties reach clusters your close contacts can’t.
Talk with two to three people actively doing the job, and up to two from each of the other two buckets. That’s four to seven calls, plus however many routing calls it takes to reach them. As long as you find high quality people in each bucket, the returns on additional calls after 2-3 are marginal, and the research supports that: accuracy after two opinions is ~27% and rises to 33% after eight. [5] Quick refresh on the buckets:
- People who are actively succeeding in the job you’re hiring for
- People who have successfully hired for the role you’re hiring for
- People who have worked with people great at the role you’re hiring for
Talk with people from different social clusters. You graduated from MIT in 2010, so you ask five friends from your class. Five perspectives, right? Wrong. You got one. [6] This is called homophily or “sampling from a homogeneous seed.” [6] Correlated advisors from the same network yield accuracy gains of 7% vs. independent ones at 27%. [7] Five people from one network is one opinion. Five from five networks is five.
Access
People say yes more than you think. [8] You must stop believing excellent people are too busy to speak with you. People underestimate the chance of a yes by as much as half. [8] When we ask for help, we weigh the cost of someone helping us, but miss that refusing to help is a cost most people aren’t willing to pay.
Embrace routing calls if you need to. In the best case scenario, everyone you need to talk to in buckets one through three are close first-degree connections. Reality is rarely a best case scenario. Thankfully, routing calls fix that. Use the questions in routing questions above.
Do the work to make it easy to say yes. You receive two emails. One is full of typos and flattery, ending with a vague ask. The second is well-researched and well-written, closing with a specific ask. You’d archive the first and take the second. Do your research. Write the email yourself. Ask for 20-45 minutes: less and you won’t be taken seriously, more and they’ll feel burdened. [9]
Consider The Ben Franklin Effect. [10] In his autobiography, Franklin recounts gaining the favor of a peer legislator. He’d heard the man had a rare book, and he asked to borrow it. Lending the book was a reasonable request, one simple enough for the man to fulfill. [10] The man had never spoken to him in the House. After the book came back, he did. They were friends until he died. [11] The paragraph ends on the principle: “He that hath once done you a kindness will be more ready to do you another than he whom you yourself have obliged.”
Get people on the phone or face-to-face. People say yes 34 times more often to a face-to-face request than to the same request by email. [12] Use an email or a text to get someone on the phone, but don’t cold-email or text people the questions you need answered.
Running the call
It is hard for an expert to explain something to a novice. You’d think that if you know something, you’d know how to explain it. But the literature disagrees. [13] [14] [15] What follows isn’t superfluous. It is the price of learning what you need to hire a stunning colleague.
Ask for permission to record the call or take great notes. Permission is legally required in many states and it’s good ethics. A transcript lets you compile specific behaviors, outcomes, competencies, expectations, and questions to ask candidates. Without a transcript, take great notes, because you will not remember it. People taking notes while listening capture about a third of the important information and one tenth of the most specific stuff. [16] The specifics are the entire reason you’re doing the call.
What to ask
Be deliberate in the questions you ask. Plan them. James Spradley spent his career learning how outsiders could interview insiders about worlds they don’t belong to. In his 1979 The Ethnographic Interview, he suggests a wide variety of questions and techniques for eliciting information from interviewees. Here are a few of my favorites:
- Grand tour questions: Get people to describe the whole territory, encouraging them to “ramble on and on.” There are four subtypes: typical (“Describe a typical day”), specific (“Tell me what you did yesterday, from the time you got to work until you left”), guided (“Could you show me around?”), and task-related (ask them to walk you through how they do a task).
- Mini-tour questions: If a “grand tour” question is asking someone what a typical day looks like, and they answer in part calling on prospects, a mini tour then asks what calling on prospects looks like. The outcome should be a list of activities.
- Example questions: Take one thing the person said and ask for a specific example.
- Personal vs. cultural phrasing: Instead of asking “Can you describe a great closing call?” ask “What do salespeople do in a closing call?” People, strangely, are much worse at describing themselves than the role. [17]
Lead with questions about failure. People aren’t good at telling you what their standard for excellence is, even if they’re experts. [18] [19] But if you ask an expert all the ways people screw a thing up, or what people who’ve failed at the job all have in common, you’re much more likely to get useful data.
Discount predictions. High performers will confidently look at someone’s LinkedIn and tell you whether they think your candidate will be successful. They’ll do it with fluency, confidence, and specificity. They believe competence at doing grants competence at judging. It does not. Daniel Kahneman and Gary Klein, two psychologists who disagreed on many things, concluded together that experts are often called upon to “make judgments in areas in which they have no skill.” [20] They called it fractionated expertise and believed it was the rule, not the exception. [20] James Shanteau sorted expert fields by whether the experts in them are any good. “Personnel selectors”, hiring managers, made the bad list.
Seek observations. Ask what successful people do. “If a camera crew followed you around for a week, what would we see? What does the work involve?” Find out how the best people succeed. For example, ask “How would a great salesperson handle a stalled enterprise deal?”
How to ask
How you ask matters as much as what you ask, and nearly all of it comes down to making it easier for people to answer. The first thing I learned as an executive coach was not to start questions with “why” unless I meant to challenge someone. [9] Why reads as criticism and puts people on the defensive; what and how don’t. [9] “How does that work?” “What makes that counterproductive?” Ask follow-ups, so they know you’re listening. [21] Give people an escape hatch, telling them they can change their answers later, and they’ll say more. [21] Finally, repeat their language back in their words, not yours. [9]
Keep asking until you understand. You’re going to spend a lot of time on calibration calls not understanding things, and you’re going to want to be helpful. “Hey, so this is what I think we need for this job. Sound right?” It feels like preparation. It feels like giving them context. In almost any other professional conversation, you’d be right. But here it just hands them your answer to react to, narrowing the field of information you’re likely to collect. [9]
What to weigh
Distinguish between craft fluency and performance. A lot of people can “talk the talk” without being able to “walk the walk.” Interviews with candidates are much better at assessing someone’s craft fluency than at assessing performance. [22] As you calibrate, ask experts how to distinguish between the two.
Put sample sizes in context with each person you call. Having assessed more than 5,000 investment managers, Graham Duncan suggests you assume “80% of people are not calibrated on the Michael Jordan” of whatever you’re hiring for. [23] [24] He relies on this question:
What’s your sample size of people in the role in which you knew Jane?… If we call [the best you’ve seen] a ‘100’, where’s Jane right now on a 1-100? [24]
When speaking with people who hired for the role rather than doing it themselves, beware that they will tell you what they believe good looks like, which is distinct from what good is. [25] To separate belief from reality, ask “What do you screen for now that you didn’t screen for in the past?”
Afterwards
Once you’ve finished all the calls related to a role, work through each of them all at once to integrate what you learned into your hiring process. Different people’s accounts are likely to contradict each other, and you’ll have to reconcile what you heard. Incorporate specific outcomes and skills you heard into your MOC, and try any interview questions and tactics you gathered in your interview process. What you heard about the first few months should inform the expectations you set on day one. And write a short thank you note to everyone for their time.